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Feasibility Study for the Electrification of Vehicles in Pakistan

Estudio de viabilidad para la electrificación de vehículos en Pakistán

Estudo de viabilidade para a eletrificação de veículos no Paquistão

Asad A. Naqvi

(*), Wassam Uddin

, S.M. Saadullah

, M. Zaviyar Abbas Noori

, M. Omer Farooq

Recibido: 13/03/2025 Aceptado: 10/07/2025

Summary. - Electric vehicles (EVs) have shown to be a viable alternative to fossil fuel vehicles (FFVs) in industrialized

countries. The reason for the adoption of EVs in industrialized countries is that they outperform FFVs in terms of fuel

usage, resulting in lower fuel imports, minimal environmental footprints, and less maintenance. The introduction of

EVs in a developing country is a very demanding and challenging task. In this paper, the technical as well as economic

aspects of introduction of EVs in Pakistan has been thoroughly explored. The statistical vehicle sale data for the past

years has been considered to estimate the EVs requirement as per the Pakistan EV policy 2019. From the estimation,

the electrical energy requirement to meet the policy targets has been calculated. From the calculated energy

requirement, the details of charging infrastructure in major cities like Karachi, Islamabad, Lahore, etc. have been

determined. It was found that EV charging station must be present for every 3x3 km radius. Further, from the estimated

EVs, the cost saved by not using fossil fuels which should be required to run FFVs has been determined. It has been

concluded from the economic perspective that EVs can significantly decrease the requirement of fossil fuel and can

result in huge amount of cost saving by not using Fossil fuel.

Keywords: Electric Vehicles, Emissions, EV Policy, Oil Import, Pakistan.

Assistant Professor, Department of Mechanical Engineering, NED University of Engineering and Technology (Pakistan),

asadakhter@cloud.neduet.edu.pk, ORCID iD: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6290-3115

Undergrad Student, Department of Mechanical Engineering, NED University of Engineering and Technology (Pakistan),

wassamuddin23@gmail.com, ORCID iD: https://orcid.org/0009-0006-9443-7140

Undergrad Student, Department of Mechanical Engineering, NED University of Engineering and Technology (Pakistan),

ssaadullah@njcu.edu, ORCID iD: https://orcid.org/0009-0003-1786-6599

Undergrad Student, Department of Mechanical Engineering, NED University of Engineering and Technology (Pakistan),

zaviyarabbas2000@gmail.com, ORCID iD: https://orcid.org/0009-0000-3544-2237

Undergrad Student, Department of Mechanical Engineering, NED University of Engineering and Technology (Pakistan),

omerf5014@gmail.com, ORCID iD: https://orcid.org/0009-0009-1882-7819

A. A. Naqvi, W. Uddin, S. M. Saadullah, M. Z. Abbas Noori, M. O. Farooq

Memoria Investigaciones en Ingeniería, núm. 29 (2025). pp. 39-53

https://doi.org/10.36561/ING.29.4

ISSN 2301-1092 • ISSN (en línea) 2301-1106 – Universidad de Montevideo, Uruguay

Resumen. - Los vehículos eléctricos (VE) han demostrado ser una alternativa viable a los vehículos de combustibles

fósiles (VCF) en los países industrializados. La razón de la adopción de VE en estos países radica en su menor consumo

de combustible, lo que se traduce en menores importaciones de combustible, un impacto ambiental mínimo y un menor

mantenimiento. La introducción de VE en un país en desarrollo representa un desafío considerable. En este trabajo,

se analizan exhaustivamente los aspectos técnicos y económicos de la introducción de VE en Pakistán. Se han

considerado los datos estadísticos de ventas de vehículos de los últimos años para estimar la necesidad de VE según

la política de VE de Pakistán de 2019. A partir de esta estimación, se calculó la demanda de energía eléctrica para

cumplir con los objetivos de la política. Con base en esta demanda energética calculada, se determinaron los detalles

de la infraestructura de carga en las principales ciudades como Karachi, Islamabad y Lahore. Se concluyó que debe

haber una estación de carga para VE cada 3x3 km. Además, a partir de la cantidad estimada de VE, se calculó el

ahorro en costos derivado de la eliminación del uso de combustibles fósiles, necesarios para el funcionamiento de los

VCF. Desde una perspectiva económica, se ha llegado a la conclusión de que los vehículos eléctricos pueden reducir

significativamente la necesidad de combustibles fósiles y generar un enorme ahorro de costes al no utilizarlos.

Palabras clave: Vehículos eléctricos, emisiones, política de vehículos eléctricos, importación de petróleo, Pakistán.

Resumo. - Os veículos elétricos (VEs) têm se mostrado uma alternativa viável aos veículos movidos a combustíveis

fósseis (VFCs) em países industrializados. A razão para a adoção de VEs nesses países é que eles superam os VFCs

em termos de consumo de combustível, resultando em menores importações de combustível, menor impacto ambiental

e menos manutenção. A introdução de VEs em um país em desenvolvimento é uma tarefa muito exigente e desafiadora.

Neste artigo, os aspectos técnicos e econômicos da introdução de VEs no Paquistão foram explorados detalhadamente.

Os dados estatísticos de vendas de veículos dos últimos anos foram considerados para estimar a demanda por VEs,

conforme a política de VEs do Paquistão de 2019. A partir dessa estimativa, calculou-se a demanda de energia elétrica

para atingir as metas da política. Com base na demanda de energia calculada, foram determinados os detalhes da

infraestrutura de recarga em grandes cidades como Karachi, Islamabad, Lahore, etc. Constatou-se que uma estação

de recarga para VEs deve estar presente a cada 3x3 km de raio. Além disso, a partir da estimativa de VEs, determinou-

se a economia de custos resultante da não utilização de combustíveis fósseis, que seriam necessários para o

funcionamento de VFCs. Do ponto de vista econômico, concluiu-se que os veículos elétricos podem diminuir

significativamente a necessidade de combustíveis fósseis e resultar em uma enorme economia de custos ao não utilizar

esses combustíveis.

Palavras-chave: Veículos elétricos, emissões, política para veículos elétricos, importação de petróleo, Paquistão.

A. A. Naqvi, W. Uddin, S. M. Saadullah, M. Z. Abbas Noori, M. O. Farooq

Memoria Investigaciones en Ingeniería, núm. 29 (2025). pp. 39-53

https://doi.org/10.36561/ING.29.4

ISSN 2301-1092 • ISSN (en línea) 2301-1106 – Universidad de Montevideo, Uruguay

1. Background. - Global warming is damaging our planet at a very rapid rate. The driving force for global warming

is carbon emissions. Around 43 billion tons carbon dioxide was produced through human activities in 2019 [1]. Due

to these carbon emissions, Pakistan is facing lot of issues like higher air quality index, acid rains, etc. while Pakistan

is the fifth most powerless nation in the face of climate change because it cannot control proficient climate change and

relies on oil (petrol or diesel) primarily due to its easy availability and lower cost than other resources. Transport sector

contributes around 24% in the global carbon emissions [2] due to dependence on fossil fuels which becomes the reason

that many developed and undeveloped countries are planning to switch from Fossil Fuel-based Vehicles (FFVs) to

EVs to reduce GHG emissions.

Currently, Pakistan's GHG emissions are growing by 6% per year, or 18.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2)

equivalent, in which the transport sector contributes around 22.69% of total annual GHG emissions [3] as can be seen

in Figure 1. As a result, the best alternative solution is Electric Vehicles, which are gaining popularity and interest due

to their advantages over conventional vehicles. The Pakistani government is also showing an interest in breaking into

the market for electric vehicles in Pakistan. The government of Pakistan devised an "Electric Vehicles Policy" in 2019,

which will aid in the adoption of EVs and have an impact on Pakistan's automotive industry growth, as well as help

alleviate the country's massive debt burden. According to the government's policy handout, the target for EV adoption

until 2030 is 30% of current vehicle sales [4], similar to other countries in the region.

Figure I. Breakdown of GHG emission by sector [3]

1.1 Penetration of EVs in Developed countries. -

China: China is presently the world's largest oil importer. China's external oil dependence reached 70 percent in 2018

[5]. For China's energy security and environmental protection, limiting oil use is critical. The electric vehicle is often

regarded as the most effective means of resolving these issues. Because of the development of electric vehicles, China's

oil demand is expected to peak in 2029. Increased electric car penetration will boost economic production while also

lowering nitrogen oxide emissions in China. Though carbon emissions will rise under the current power structure, the

development of electric vehicles has the potential to significantly reduce CO2 emissions if non-fossil energy becomes

the dominant energy source in the future in China [6].

European Countries: Europe, behind China, is the world's second-largest market for electric vehicles. The European

electric vehicle (EV) market is expected to grow at an unprecedented rate by 2020.

More than 1.36 million new electric passenger cars, including battery-electric (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric

vehicles (PHEV), were sold in the region in 2019, up 143 percent from the previous year. Due to high sales, Europe

surpassed China as the world's largest EV market in 2020. This occurred during a time when the automotive sector was

through major instability [7].

A. A. Naqvi, W. Uddin, S. M. Saadullah, M. Z. Abbas Noori, M. O. Farooq

Memoria Investigaciones en Ingeniería, núm. 29 (2025). pp. 39-53

https://doi.org/10.36561/ING.29.4

ISSN 2301-1092 • ISSN (en línea) 2301-1106 – Universidad de Montevideo, Uruguay

EV sales in Europe climbed by 20% because of COVID-19, despite a 20% reduction in overall new car sales in Europe.

The market share of electric vehicles has climbed to 11%. Several European markets have made significant progress.

Greater percentages of new electric vehicle sales: 75% in Norway, 32% in Sweden, and 25% in the Netherlands and

Finland has18%, Denmark has16%, Switzerland and Portugal has14%, Germany has13%, while France, Belgium, and

the United Kingdom have 11% [8].

1.2 Penetration of Electric Vehicles in Pakistan’s neighbouring countries. -

India: Electricity consumption in India has been increasing at a rate of 8–10 percent per year. The Indian government

is actively promoting the use of electric vehicles in the Indian market. The National Electric Mobility Mission Plan

(NEMMP) 2020 has been launched by the government of India to further evaluate their plans for the penetration of

electric vehicles in their country [9]. The future analysis is done to determine the electric vehicle fleet, and then the

future energy consumption per year is forecasted for 2030 using several scenarios of 20%, 30%, and 100%

electrification of cars, as these targets are to be met by the Indian government. The results of a yearly cost-saving

analysis for the researchers of India have discovered various types of automobiles, and they are as follows: There are

four different categories of electric vehicles to consider: two-wheelers, three-wheelers, passenger vehicles, and

commercial vehicles. It is believed that a two-wheeler travels 20 km per day, a three-wheeler travels 80 km per day,

passenger vehicles travel 100 km per day, and commercial vehicles travel 250 km per day. The above part contains

energy usage, which is used for further investigation. The charging unit cost of power is considered Rs. 5. The cost of

fuel is calculated at Rs. 75 per litre. The cost-saving study is based on automobiles projected in 2030, with 100 percent

electric vehicles being taken into account. As there will be around 4 million vehicles on the road in the future, there

will be a significant increase in energy demand if they are all-electric [10].

India is a developing country, there is a pressing need to transition to electric vehicles as the gap between crude oil use

and production widens. As India is a developing country, it is keener to adopt and penetrate the electrical vehicles in

their country to evolve country to an industrialized and developed country. With these imperatives, electric vehicles

would surely gain traction in India's future automobile market.

Bangladesh: Bangladesh is a country that is quite similar to our country and it is facing similar difficulties in the

adoption of Electric Vehicles. EV adoption and penetration in Bangladesh becomes very challenging due to several

barriers. Batteries run almost all the electric vehicles (i.e. bikes, auto-rickshaws, and electric bikes) in Bangladesh. A

study showed that more than 0.5 million EVs are running in Bangladesh and these ingest 450 MW of electric power

daily from the national grid [11], [12]. As the number of electric vehicles (EVs) grows, so does the demand for EV

accessories and charging stations. According to the demand, the charging station, which is an important parameter,

appears to be insufficient in Bangladesh. As a result, the electric car owner uses the residential rate to recharge the

batteries in their home. In this sense, the power industry of Bangladesh has had a system failure, and a considerable

quantity of revenue from this sector has been lost. In Bangladesh, there are no accurate statistics on EVs. As a result,

the government is unable to take appropriate action in this matter. In Bangladesh, there are varieties of factors that

influence EV adoption. Inadequate EV charging stations (EVCS), battery technology, power supply unavailability,

excessive charging costs, pollution, and so on. So the study shows that Bangladesh is also facing the same barriers and

difficulties to be feasible in the adoption of EVs [13]

1.3 Need of EVs in Pakistan. - In Pakistan, the transportation sector has experienced double-digit expansion. Almost

the entire transportation sector is reliant on oil-based products, and the government spends nearly USD 13 billion

annually on oil imports. The bill for oil imports is estimated to exceed USD 30 billion by 2025 if our transportation

sector continues to grow at the same double-digit rate [14]. Pakistan's power sector has also suffered difficulties, with

power generation failing to meet the country's power demand for the past decade. However, in the coming years, the

situation will drastically deteriorate, and Pakistan will face a power-generating shortage. The country has already signed

up for a new generation, according to the National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC), bringing its overall

power generation capacity to 41,981 MW peak generation [15]. In Pakistan, EVs will be able to take advantage of the

power supply glut in the next years. After accounting for all transmission and distribution losses, we estimate that a

daily supply of 1000 MW may fully charge about 500,000 EVs [16]. The installation of charging stations in every

practical range on highways, motorways, and local roads is a significant consideration for capital expenditure in

A. A. Naqvi, W. Uddin, S. M. Saadullah, M. Z. Abbas Noori, M. O. Farooq

Memoria Investigaciones en Ingeniería, núm. 29 (2025). pp. 39-53

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ISSN 2301-1092 • ISSN (en línea) 2301-1106 – Universidad de Montevideo, Uruguay

charging stations for the expanding use of EVs in Pakistan. To improve governance, intelligent metering should be

installed at each EV charging station to better control and monitor the power level while also providing an efficient

payment system. To make the most of charging stations, more alternatives with multiple chargers, such as slow and

rapid charging connections with variable charging rates, are necessary at each station. Users can make use of the

benefits of slow charging ports at lower rates without having to rush; fast charging ports, which use more energy to

replenish the battery and take less time to complete, will benefit hurried clients.

1.4 Challenges in the adoption of EVs. - Governments all around the world are encouraging users to switch from

fossil-fuel vehicles to electric vehicles, but the technology still faces several serious challenges before becoming widely

adopted. With 63 percent of consumers assuming that an EV is out of their budget, the capital cost has always been a

big element in the EV purchasing decision [17]. With battery costs, declining and cost parity between EVs and ICE

vehicles expected by 2026 [18], attention is turning to the problem of scaling the necessary infrastructure and raw

material supply to enable mass adoption of EVs.

Charging stations are harder to find than traditional gas stations and are usually limited by investment costs and difficult

infrastructure development. In addition, charging in places where you normally park, such as at home or work, presents

unique challenges as this reduces the network of functioning charging stations and discourages consumers from

switching to electric vehicles. Increased EV adoption adds to the pressure on the grid, which may necessitate new grid

infrastructure investment to match the increased demand. As utilities and power companies try to figure out how to

comprehend the quickly developing EV industry, forecasting when and where this electricity is needed is a new

problem. Charging EVs at off-peak hours, such as late at night or early in the morning, reduces the danger of grid

overload.

Grey energy networks, which rely heavily on fossil fuels, reduce the use of EVs as a means for businesses and

consumers to reduce emissions. As a result, it is critical to decarbonize the grid as much as possible to persuade

purchasers that switching to an EV is profitable and decreases carbon emissions [19]. EVs consume around six times

the number of mineral inputs as ICE vehicles. According to the IEA (International Energy Agency), 70 million EVs on

the road by 2040 would be followed by a 30-fold rise in mineral consumption [12]. There is no lack of these subsurface

resources; the question is whether they will be harvested responsibly, by social responsibility governance, and in time

to fulfill demand. It is expected that there would be a nickel scarcity and difficulties in scaling up lithium production.

Because of the supply scarcity, producers may employ lower-quality mineral inputs, reducing battery performance [20].

Steps to allay these challenges: With the move to electric vehicles well underway, propelled by increased

environmental concerns, government laws, and financial incentives, the obstacles created by this transformation are

only mounting. Fortunately, AIoT-assisted technology (Artificial intelligence of things), when combined with other

hardware, industrial, and supply chain solutions, allows us to overcome numerous problems. Battery monitoring,

analytics, and recycling help to alleviate supply bottlenecks caused by increased demand for necessary battery materials

by prolonging battery lifetime and reusability.

Smart and flexible charging technology utilizes idle power from car batteries to give additional electrical supply to the

grid at times of high demand, in other circumstances, just intelligently stops, or decreases charging power. In contrast,

it allows users to recharge during off-peak hours for one-third or less of the peak-hour charging price, lowering grid

congestion and consumer costs during peak hours [21]. The charging system can better anticipate abrupt peaks in

electricity consumption by allowing EV owners to plan to charge based on power limits, price, and priority, as well as

sell unused power back to the grid.

On an integrated digital platform, energy management systems choreograph an energy system's generation assets (such

as solar or wind power installations) and demand assets (such as EV chargers, heating and cooling systems, and lights).

This enables real-time asset health and performance monitoring via the Internet of Things (IoT) connection and AI-

driven algorithms, which maximize renewable energy consumption while lowering operating costs and system

investments. It also enables the co-optimization of EVs and stationary storage with other grid-connected [19].

A. A. Naqvi, W. Uddin, S. M. Saadullah, M. Z. Abbas Noori, M. O. Farooq

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Exhaustion of Environment: Due to the effects of climate change, Pakistan has already been designated as the fifth

most susceptible country [22]. Burning additional fossil fuels, including oil, will only exacerbate the problem.

Pakistan's emissions are predicted to treble by 2020 and triple by 2030 [23], according to the National Economic and

Environmental Development Study (NEEDS) study. Other harmful substances like sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen

dioxide (NO2), particulate matter (PM), PM10, and PM2.5, will also increase in the atmosphere because of increased

fossil fuel combustion. Pakistan generates over 37% of its electricity from renewable sources [24].

When this is combined with the efficiency of EVs, environmental emissions are reduced by 70-80% when compared

to FFVs. This indicates that, while electric vehicles have no particulate emissions, they have a 70-80% reduction in

environmental emissions across the entire energy value chain [16]. Therefore, we can say that a step toward electric

vehicles is the best solution to overcome the exhaustion of the environment in Pakistan.

1.5 Research Gap and Novelty. - From the preceding discussion, one can come with a conclusion that EVs is an

attractive way to replace the fossil fuel-based transportation, to avoid the carbon emissions. But it is important to

consider the technical requirements of the EVs for its implementation. In this research, the technical aspects of the EVs

requirement have been thoroughly investigated. Moreover, the costing of the EVs including cost saved due to

implementation of EVs have been discussed to investigate its economic aspects in Pakistan.

2. Methodology. - For the technical investigation, the immense amount of statistical data from different institutions in

Pakistan is gathered. This section deals with the gathered data and information that are used in the prediction of vehicles

by 2030, the number of electric vehicles, the energy required for these electric vehicles, the charging infrastructure

required in motorways and major cities, the amount of oil barrels that can be saved from the penetration of electric

vehicles and the cost saved from this EV penetration is discussed.

2.1. Prediction of Car Sales by 2030. - To predict the future number of vehicles that are going to be on the roads of

Pakistan by 2030, the data is collected from registered vehicles of different categories from 2006 to 2019 and is

presented in Table 1.

Year

2 wheelers

3 wheelers

4 wheelers

Cabs

buses

trucks

2006

137,892

6821

68610

1976

8779

9497

2007

144,081

12853

109053

1034

2999

3127

2008

175,768

11842

108006

2032

7796

8370

2009

1,089,538

33917

68487

16419

3627

5175

2010

1,476,832

64563

155213

1769

3686

8956

2011

1,718,229

56799

212729

19208

12898

15813

2012

1,669,346

57390

186794

1375

4973

6309

2013

1,836,893

85606

156652

190

4056

6377

2014

2,074,979

92929

277587

22254

4887

8271

2015

2,149,560

112289

218346

3081

6324

7626

2016

2,287,405

91673

262874

131

6580

8649

2017

2,278,212

80224

299039

227

7004

6829

2018

2,174,543

75709

207936

4741

3304

2019

736,248

20375

69318

839

6770

Table I. Vehicle sale over the year [25]

Prediction of EVs by 2030: For the Prediction of EVs in Pakistan by 2030, two different scenarios mentioned in Table

2 are considered that are according to medium-term targets and long-term targets of NEVP 2019 [4].

A. A. Naqvi, W. Uddin, S. M. Saadullah, M. Z. Abbas Noori, M. O. Farooq

Memoria Investigaciones en Ingeniería, núm. 29 (2025). pp. 39-53

https://doi.org/10.36561/ING.29.4

ISSN 2301-1092 • ISSN (en línea) 2301-1106 – Universidad de Montevideo, Uruguay

EV Penetration Targets

Medium-term targets (5 years)

Long-term targets (2030)

4 Wheelers (cars jeeps vans small busses)

100,000 EVs

30% of new sales

2 or 3 Wheelers

500,000 EVs

50% of new sales

Buses

1000 EVs

50% of new sales

Trucks

1000 EVs

30% of new sales

Table II. EV penetration targets [4]

Using the results from the calculations done for the prediction of sales of vehicles, the estimated number of EVs can

be calculated for both scenario 1 and scenario 2

Charging Infrastructure: The calculation of the power requirement of EVs in Pakistan by 2030 for both scenarios 1

and 2 are done by the formula given below

       Eq. 1

Where,

E = Energy Consumed per day in kWh

N = Number of EVs

d = Average traveling distance in km

e = Energy consumption in kWh per km

Table 3 shows the average distance in km travelled by different categories of vehicles and their average energy

consumption in kWh per km [26].

Vehicle Type

Average traveling distance in km

Energy consumption in kWh per km

2 and 3 Wheelers

0.0241

4 Wheelers

0.215

Buses

1.35

Trucks

100

1.242

Table III. Energy requirement by different EV [26]

According to the EV policy, there must be one DC fast charging station in every 3 by 3 km range in all the major cities

like Karachi, Islamabad, Lahore, etc. So, 9 meter-sq is divided by the area of the city to get the amount of charging

stations in that city [4].

  

 Eq. 2

Where,

Y = Number of charging stations

A = Area of city in meter-sq

Since, for the initial steps the policy aims at building charging infrastructure in the major cities that is why smaller

cities are not considered. However, on motorways and highways, the policy suggests building a charging station every

15 km on all important motorways and highways.

Economic Analysis: Pakistan is a net importer of oil and its products. Beyond that, transport is the second largest user

of energy after industry and accounts for about 34 percent of total final energy consumption and almost 59 percent of

liquid fuel consumption in Pakistan. That is, air, sea, and road transport account for more than half of oil consumption

(59 percent) followed by the power sector (32 percent) and industry (8 percent)

A. A. Naqvi, W. Uddin, S. M. Saadullah, M. Z. Abbas Noori, M. O. Farooq

Memoria Investigaciones en Ingeniería, núm. 29 (2025). pp. 39-53

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ISSN 2301-1092 • ISSN (en línea) 2301-1106 – Universidad de Montevideo, Uruguay

On average, the study finds growth of about 12.5 percent in the demand for petrol and about 9.6 percent in the demand

for diesel in the road transport of Pakistan [14]. The number of barrels of oil extracted from the Pakistan economic

survey is presented in Table 4 [27]

Table IV. Pakistan’s Oil Import

Now talking about the benefit that the Introduction of EVs can make to the current situation of oil imports in Pakistan,

we know that the transport sector is the biggest consumer of oil in Pakistan and accounts for 34 percent of energy

consumption and 59 percent of the liquid fuel consumption

Using the average oil import cost and using the data from Scenario 1 and scenario 2 we can estimate the saved cost

using the formula given below

   󰇛 󰇜

 󰇛 󰇜

Eq. (3)

Here the factor (Average oil import cost X 0.34) represents the percentage of oil cost used in the transport sector.

3. Results and Discussions. - To study the trend of vehicle sales with respect to time, statistical software Minitab was

utilized to create regression models for diverse vehicle categories. The sales statistics, as indicated in Table 1,

underwent linear regression analysis to determine patterns over time. The findings in various vehicle categories are

depicted in Figure 1. It is clear from the regression analysis that vehicle sales have been on a rising trend during the

years. Various models were examined to find the best fit for each vehicle type. For two-wheelers, the linear regression

model proved the most appropriate with an R-square value of 85.69%. This signifies that the model is able to forecast

two-wheeler sales with about 85.69% accuracy and has a margin of error of 14%. The high correlation indicates a

consistent pattern of growth in two-wheeler sales over time. For four-wheelers, the best-fitting model was found to be

the quadratic regression model with an R-square of 68.71%. This relatively lower R-square indicates that the quadratic

model does not forecast four-wheeler sales with great accuracy. The precision of this model is less than that of the

linear model for two-wheelers, which means that other factors besides time contribute a great deal to four-wheeler

sales, which makes the sales fluctuate to a point that it cannot be fully accounted for by a plain time-based model. In

the case of three-wheelers, the linear regression model proved to be suitable, as was the case for two-wheelers. Although

the model has decent predictive power, there is some error involved, which indicates that other factors affecting the

trend must be taken into account in order to make a more precise forecast.

Years

Cost

M.T

Barrels of Oil

2010-11

8,761.50

N/A

2011-12

12,582.90

N/A

2012-13

12362.5

N/A

2013-14

12,221.10

N/A

2014-15

8,896.60

12,678,825

48,663,450

2015-16

5,584.80

11,241,367

7,053,648.25

2016-17

6,683.10

15,791,893

67,816,976.25

2017-18

8,393.30

19,223,622

19,106,751.5

2018-19

361.7

232,206

346,492

2019-20

6,417.30

13,521,203

9,968,162.75

2020-21

5,471.00

16,862,412

41,196,704

A. A. Naqvi, W. Uddin, S. M. Saadullah, M. Z. Abbas Noori, M. O. Farooq

Memoria Investigaciones en Ingeniería, núm. 29 (2025). pp. 39-53

https://doi.org/10.36561/ING.29.4

ISSN 2301-1092 • ISSN (en línea) 2301-1106 – Universidad de Montevideo, Uruguay

Figure II. Regression model for estimation of Vehicles Sale by 2030 (a) 2 wheelers (b) 4 wheelers (c) 3 wheelers.

2 Wheelers

   󰇛󰇜

Eq. 4

3 Wheelers

    󰇛󰇜

Eq. 5

4 Wheelers

   󰇛󰇜󰇛󰇜

Eq. 6

Table V. EV prediction model

Considering medium-term targets as Scenario 1 and long-term targets as scenario 2, the number of EVs are estimated

for from Equations 4, 5, and 6, which are obtained from the regression model applied on the data gathered for vehicle

sales over the past 15 years and the results have been presented in Figure 3. From where, it is clear that for medium

targets, around 4.3 million cumulative 2 and 3 wheelers EVs will be required, while to meet the long term targets the

required combined 2 and 3 EVs should 11.6 million by 2030. To meet the targets, the 4 wheelers EVs should be around

300,000 for medium targets while for long term targets, these should be around 715,000 by 2030. These numbers show

that there would be a good quantity of EVs that will be present in 2030 and to run these EVs the significant amount of

electrical energy would be required. The electricity required to run the EVs have been estimated using Equation 1 and

the results have been presented in Figure 4. For Scenario 1, around 6.5 GWh electrical energy is required on daily basis

to run the EVs out of which 2.1 GWh/day will be required by 2 and 3 wheelers while 4.4 GWh/day will be required by

4 wheelers. For long-term targets, termed as Scenario 2, more electrical energy will be required because of high number

of EVs. Around 16.28 GWh/day electrical energy will be required to meet the long-term targets. Out of which, 5.633

GWh/day will be required by 2 and 3 wheelers while the rest of energy will be required by the 4 wheelers.

A. A. Naqvi, W. Uddin, S. M. Saadullah, M. Z. Abbas Noori, M. O. Farooq

Memoria Investigaciones en Ingeniería, núm. 29 (2025). pp. 39-53

https://doi.org/10.36561/ING.29.4

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Figure III. EVs prediction (a) 2 and 3 wheelers (b) 4 wheelers.

Figure IV. Electrical Energy Requirement by different EVs.

The charging infrastructure requirement for major cities of Pakistan has been estimated by using Equation 2 and the

results are presented in Table 6. The charging infrastructure requirement has been estimated by considering the policy

requirement which restricts one DC fast charging station in every 3 by 3 km range in all the major cities like Karachi,

Islamabad, Lahore, etc. These charging stations must be enough to support the electrical energy requirement by EVs.

The area of Karachi is 3780 km. sq. so for 1 DC charging station in every 3 by 3 km, there will be a need for 420

charging stations only in Karachi. Similarly for other major cities like Lahore, Islamabad, Faisalabad, Peshawar,

Rawalpindi, Gujranwala, Hyderabad, and Quetta, the number of charging stations would be 197,100, 144, 23, 29, 27,

32, and 19 respectively. Since the policy aims at building charging infrastructure in the major cities that is why smaller

cities are not considered, the number of charging stations to be installed in these cities by 2030 sums up to be 991.

Scenario 1 Scenario 2

Enery Requirement (GWh/day)

Vehicle type

2 and 3 wheelers

4 wheelers

A. A. Naqvi, W. Uddin, S. M. Saadullah, M. Z. Abbas Noori, M. O. Farooq

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Table VI. Charging Stations required in Major Cities.

The economic assessment of electric vehicles (EVs) begins with quantifying the cost benefits that stem from their use,

which can be computed as the difference between EV utilization expenses and FFV utilization costs. In Pakistan, the

transport industry uses oil the most, as it makes up 34% of energy consumption and 59% of liquid fuels. Financial

savings due to lesser oil consumption were calculated using Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 data, assumptions and average

oil import price as shown in Equation 3. The results are presented in Tables 7 and 8. In Scenario 1, the total cost savings

is estimated at $812 million, while Scenario 2 estimates the cost savings at $2,149 million. All cost figures are in USD.

This showcases the remarkable economic impact that EV integration offers for the transport sector. If adapted, Pakistan

would reduce the burden its imported oil has on the economy, curb trade imbalance, and improve energy independence.

It also contributes to sustainable development through advancing cleaner transportation options. Both scenarios greatly

showcase the savings that would be seen in costs, which demonstrates the positive economic outlook that EV integration

brings.

Scenario 1

YEAR

TOTAL VEHICLES

EVs

FFV

% OF FFV

COST SAVED

(Mil. $)

2021

32,777,068

75,903

32,701,165

99.77%

6.279856805

2022

37,608,978

235,053

37,373,925

99.38%

16.94872923

2023

42,633,853

482,984

42,150,869

98.87%

30.72137116

2024

47,849,197

830,284

47,018,913

98.26%

47.05592934

2025

53,252,514

1,282,301

51,970,213

97.59%

65.29985323

2026

58,841,308

1,846,006

56,995,302

96.86%

85.0772001

2027

64,613,083

2,528,277

62,084,806

96.09%

106.1125401

2028

70,565,343

3,335,901

67,229,442

95.27%

128.1988555

2029

76,695,592

4,275,569

72,420,023

94.43%

151.1770904

2030

83,001,334

5,353,881

77,647,453

93.55%

174.9226881

TOTAL

811.7941139

Table VII. Cost saving for Scenario 1.

Scenario 2

YEAR

TOTAL VEHICALS

EV SCENARIO 2

FFV

% OF FFV

COST SAVED

(Mil. $)

2021

32,777,068

199,664

32,577,404

99.39%

16.51935157

2022

37,608,978

618,902

36,990,076

98.35%

44.62652185

2023

42,633,853

1,277,397

41,356,456

97.00%

81.25195391

2024

47,849,197

2,194,608

45,654,589

95.41%

124.3783385

2025

53,252,514

3,389,769

49,862,745

93.63%

172.6205406

2026

58,841,308

4,881,891

53,959,417

91.70%

224.9925793

2027

64,613,083

6,689,758

57,923,325

89.65%

280.7710869

City

Number of Stations

Lahore

197

Islamabad

100

Faisalabad

144

Peshawar

Rawalpindi

Gujranwala

Quetta

Hyderabad

Karachi

420

Total

991

A. A. Naqvi, W. Uddin, S. M. Saadullah, M. Z. Abbas Noori, M. O. Farooq

Memoria Investigaciones en Ingeniería, núm. 29 (2025). pp. 39-53

https://doi.org/10.36561/ING.29.4

ISSN 2301-1092 • ISSN (en línea) 2301-1106 – Universidad de Montevideo, Uruguay

2028

70,565,343

8,831,931

61,733,412

87.48%

339.4115783

2029

76,695,592

11,326,745

65,368,847

85.23%

400.4950923

2030

83,001,334

14,192,313

68,809,021

82.90%

463.693047

TOTAL

2148.76009

Table VIII. Cost saving for Scenario 2.

4. Conclusion. - The predictions and calculations done in this paper indicate that the introduction of EVs in Pakistan’s

transport sector will be beneficial for lowering carbon emissions by replacing conventional cars. The introduction of

EVs will also be encouraging private and government sectors to invest in clean and renewable energy, however, the

clean energy generation in Pakistan is already gradually growing as discussed above moreover it will promote the idea

of clean and renewable energy among normal individuals. Talking about power, these electric vehicles will need 6.5

GWh/day and 16.28 GWh/day according to Scenario 1 and 2 respectively. Other than the environmental benefits of

EVs in Pakistan there is also a huge economic benefit too, Pakistan being a net importer of oil is a huge burden on

Pakistan’s economy currently Pakistan imported 41,196,704 barrels of oil in the year 2020-21 from which almost 34%

will be for the transport sector, this indicates that replacing conventional vehicles with EVs will directly affect

Pakistan’s economy. According to the calculations done in this paper, the total cost saved over the period of 10 years

from scenario 1 is estimated to be 812 million dollars and can reach 2149 million dollars if we consider scenario 2. All

this discussion leads to the result that EVs are the best option for Pakistan to deal with Environmental issues and with

the burden of oil import in the country. A renewed EV policy by the government of Pakistan is much needed to

accelerate EV growth by further decreasing import duties on EVs and related technology to increase public awareness

by providing incentives to the buyers, moreover invest in building up infrastructure and charging stations across the

motorways and highways of Pakistan.

5. Declaration. - The authors would like to declare that there is no conflict of interest. Authors would also like to

declare the use of Artificial Intelligence in improving the overall text of the manuscript.

A. A. Naqvi, W. Uddin, S. M. Saadullah, M. Z. Abbas Noori, M. O. Farooq

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A. A. Naqvi, W. Uddin, S. M. Saadullah, M. Z. Abbas Noori, M. O. Farooq

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Author contribution:

1. Conception and design of the study

2. Data acquisition

3. Data analysis

4. Discussion of the results

5. Writing of the manuscript

6. Approval of the last version of the manuscript

AAN has contributed to: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.

WU has contributed to: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.

SMS has contributed to: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.

MZAN has contributed to: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.

MOF has contributed to: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.

Acceptance Note: This article was approved by the journal editors Dr. Rafael Sotelo and Mag. Ing. Fernando A.

Hernández Gobertti.