An Analysis of Hydrodynamic Models and a Proposal of Cultural Change based on predictions

The case of the Rio Grande do Sul Flood, Brazil

Abstract

The largest episode of extreme climate crisis in Brazil, the floods and inundations in the state of Rio Grande do Sul-RGS in May 2024, have highlighted the urgent need to rethink urban infrastructure and research priorities in contexts of lack of access to knowledge and disorganized territorial planning. The main objective of this study is to analyze the relationship between flood management and the implementation of structural and non-structural measures. Through a systematic literature review, solutions based on hydrodynamic models with potential application to prevent and mitigate floods in urban environments are identified. Likewise, a critical evaluation of the strategies employed during the major flood in Rio Grande do Sul is carried out, proposing more effective and sustainable alternatives. The RGS also faces cultural problems with a cascading effect—serious attempts at separatism from the rest of Brazil and constant acts of machismo and racism, with several deaths, due to the belief of superiority—that impact crisis management. Based on this approach, the following research question is posed: What role does culture play in knowledge management about floods and drainage, especially in relation to the use of hydrodynamic models? This question gives rise to the proposal of an integrated Cultural Intelligence, Knowledge Management, and Social Participation model, aimed at optimizing the design and implementation of flood control plans. Initially, a comparative analysis of the CRESTv2.1, HEC-RAS, MIKE 21, and cGAN-Flood models was considered, and the application of the Hydropol2D forecasting model was considered. However, important limitations were identified, such as the omission of the effects of agricultural activity on hydrological dynamics. Consequently, it is suggested to replace Hydropol2D with the SWAT+ (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model, in combination with the groundwater module (GWFlow), which allows a more precise simulation of surface and subsurface hydrological processes. This integrated tool not only offers greater capacity to assess the impact of land uses and agricultural practices, but also improves the accuracy in modeling urban drainage scenarios. Keywords: cultural change, knowledge management, hydrodynamic models, organizational intelligence, SWAT+ GWFlow, urban planning.